The five-variable nomogram predicted delayed discharge after bariatric surgery with an AUC of 0.77 in the development cohort and up to 0.87 in temporal validation cohorts.
Observational (n=281)
No
Does a five-variable clinical nomogram accurately predict delayed discharge in adults undergoing bariatric surgery?
281 adults (≥ 18 years) who underwent primary or revisional minimally invasive sleeve gastrectomy (SG) and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) at a United States military treatment facility between January 1, 2022 and December 31, 2024. Mean age 47.2 years, 26.7% male.
Development and temporal validation of a five-variable clinical nomogram (operative time > 150 min, overnight hydromorphone use, ≥ 1 overnight antiemetic dose, POD 0 oral intake < 200 mL, and POD 1 hemoglobin decrease ≥ 2 g/dL) to predict delayed discharge.
Delayed discharge, defined as hospital stay > 1 day following the index procedure
A five-variable nomogram using perioperative factors accurately predicts delayed discharge after bariatric surgery, which may aid in individualized discharge planning.
Effect estimate: AUC 0.77 (development cohort), 0.78 (2022 validation), 0.87 (2024 validation) (95% CI 95% CI 0.69–0.85 (development), 0.68–0.88 (2022), 0.79–0.96 (2024))
p-value: p=0.17 (Hosmer–Lemeshow test for calibration)
A five-variable nomogram accurately predicts delayed discharge following bariatric surgery and demonstrated strong temporal validation. This tool may aid individualized discharge planning.
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Michael T. Olson
Joint Base San Antonio
Yun Beom Lee
Brooke Army Medical Center
Pamela C. Masella
Joint Base San Antonio
Surgical Endoscopy
Joint Base San Antonio
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Olson et al. (Fri,) conducted a observational in Adults undergoing primary or revisional minimally invasive sleeve gastrectomy or Roux-en-Y gastric bypass at a US military treatment facility (n=281). Five-variable clinical nomogram incorporating operative time > 150 min, overnight hydromorphone use, ≥ 1 overnight antiemetic dose, POD 0 oral intake < 200 mL, POD 1 hemoglobin decrease ≥ 2 g/dL vs. Standard discharge planning without use of nomogram was evaluated on Delayed discharge defined as hospital stay > 1 day following bariatric surgery (AUC 0.77 (development cohort), 0.78 (2022 validation), 0.87 (2024 validation), 95% CI 95% CI 0.69–0.85 (development), 0.68–0.88 (2022), 0.79–0.96 (2024), p=p=0.17 (Hosmer–Lemeshow test for calibration)). The five-variable nomogram predicted delayed discharge after bariatric surgery with an AUC of 0.77 in the development cohort and up to 0.87 in temporal validation cohorts.
synapsesocial.com/papers/69ada90bbc08abd80d5bc575 — DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00464-026-12663-2
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