Interannual variability in climatic conditions represents a major source of uncertainty in cool-climate viticulture, highlighting the need for cultivar-specific assessments of climate–quality relationships. A multi-year on-farm experiment with six monitoring sites has been conducted in vineyards representative of the Tokaj wine region to monitor and assess vintage effect. This study, as the first part of a broader research project evaluating must components, quantifies relationships between climatic indices and key yield- and sugar-related traits (berry weight, total soluble solids, and total dry extract) in Vitis vinifera L. cv. Furmint grown in the Tokaj wine region over three contrasting vintages. Thermal, radiative, and water-availability variables were calculated for discrete phenological phases and statistically analyzed to identify climatic predictors of berry growth and must composition. Berry weight exhibited pronounced vintage sensitivity, showing consistent associations with precipitation-related variables during early developmental stages. In contrast, total soluble solids and total dry extract displayed weaker and less consistent responses to interannual climatic variability. Several widely used heat-accumulation indices showed limited explanatory power, indicating a moderate climatic sensitivity of sugar-related traits in this cultivar. Overall, the results suggest that early-season climatic conditions exert a stronger influence on berry growth than late-season thermal extremes, while compositional parameters related to sugar accumulation remain comparatively stable. These findings highlight the need to incorporate cultivar-specific response functions into statistical models that assess projected climate-change effects on grape quality.
Rácz et al. (Tue,) studied this question.