What question did this study set out to answer?

To analyze risk factors for obstructive sleep apnoea in metabolic syndrome patients and create a predictive model.

March 13, 2026Open Access

Establishment and Evaluation of a Prediction Model for Concomitant OSA in Metabolic Syndrome Patients Undergoing Proposed Bariatric Surgery Based on Real‐World Data Study

Key Result

A prediction model using age, hip circumference, and nocturnal minimum oxygen concentration effectively identifies OSA risk in metabolic syndrome patients prior to bariatric surgery.

Key Points

To analyze risk factors for obstructive sleep apnoea in metabolic syndrome patients and create a predictive model.
Retrospective analysis of hospitalization data for MetS patients proposed for bariatric surgery.
Collection of clinical data from training and validation sets over specific months in 2023-2025.
Screening independent risk factors using logistic regression analysis.
Age, hip circumference, and nocturnal minimum oxygen concentration identified as independent risk factors for OSA.
A logistic model was constructed predicting OSA risk based on identified factors.
The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy when validated with clinical data.

Structured PICO

Does a prediction model based on age, hip circumference, and nocturnal minimum oxygen concentration accurately predict concurrent OSA in patients with metabolic syndrome undergoing proposed bariatric surgery?

Population

266 patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) undergoing proposed bariatric surgery (166 in training set, 100 in validation set) admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology, the First Hospital of Hebei Medical University.

Intervention

Prediction model based on age, hip circumference, and nocturnal minimum oxygen concentration

Outcome

Concurrent obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA)

A prediction model using age, hip circumference, and nocturnal minimum oxygen concentration can help screen for concurrent OSA in metabolic syndrome patients planned for bariatric surgery.

Main Result

Absolute Event Rate: 0% vs 0%

Abstract

Objective To retrospectively analyse the risk factors for the complication of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to establish a predictive model and also to validate the accuracy of the model. Methods The hospitalisation information of MetS patients undergoing bariatric surgery admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology, the First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, from November 2023 to March 2025 was retrospectively collected, of which 166 cases from November 2023 to August 2024 were used as the training set and 100 cases from September 2024 to March 2025 were used as the validation set. The clinical data of the patients in the training set were used to screen the independent risk factors for concurrent OSA in MetS patients who were proposed to undergo bariatric and metabolic surgery (BMS), to build a prediction model and evaluate the model using ROC curves and then to verify the accuracy of the model using the clinical information of the patients in the validation set. Results The training set analysis showed that age, hip circumference and nocturnal minimum oxygen concentration were independent risk factors for the complication of OSA in patients with MetS, and a logistic model was constructed as Logit ( p ) = 22.394 + 0.078 ∗ Age + 0.105 ∗ Hip Circumference‐0.413 ∗ Nocturnal Minimum Oxygen Concentration. Conclusion The prediction model constructed on the basis of age, hip circumference and nocturnal minimum blood oxygen concentration has a high predictive value for concurrent OSA in patients with MetS who are proposed to undergo BMS and can be used as a clinical screening aid.