This paper presents a global empirical analysis of how industrial policies (IPs) affect patent applications, with an instrumental-variable strategy that addresses selection in policy targeting by leveraging retaliatory dynamics. On average, IPs do not increase domestic patent applications over a four-year period, except when they target sectors with potential distortions or externalities, such as infant industries or low-carbon technologies. However, IPs temporarily boost foreign patent filings within the same timeframe, consistent with strategic front-loading by foreign inventors seeking to secure technology protection, and perhaps market access, in the IP-targeted sector. This link between foreign patent applications and IPs is stronger for export-oriented policies compared to domestic subsidies, for IPs targeting innovation-central sectors, and in emerging markets and developing economies.
Baquie et al. (Sun,) studied this question.