Utilizing performance-based energy consumption prediction methodology according to zero energy mandate system levels: A study on greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for non-residential buildings in Goyang City, South Korea

This study evaluates future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for non-residential buildings in Goyang City, South Korea, in the context of the national carbon-neutral policy framework. A performance-based energy consumption prediction methodology was applied using building stock data and policy-driven assumptions to assess long-term reduction pathways. Three scenarios were developed: (1) demand-side energy efficiency improvements based on the application of Zero Energy Building standards, (2) progressive electrification of building energy use in line with the national carbon-neutral roadmap, and (3) the integration of power-sector decarbonization through time-dependent electricity emission factors. Primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions were evaluated for short-term (2025), medium-term (2030–2040), and long-term (2050) horizons. The results indicate that primary energy consumption can be reduced by up to 94% and greenhouse gas emissions by up to 93% by 2050 under the most comprehensive scenario. While energy efficiency improvements alone achieved moderate reductions, electrification without power-sector decarbonization showed limited effectiveness in reducing primary energy demand. The greatest reductions were achieved when building efficiency measures were combined with substantial decarbonization of electricity generation. These findings demonstrate that achieving carbon neutrality in the building sector requires not only demand-side efficiency improvements but also coordinated transformations in the energy supply system. The results provide quantitative evidence to support urban energy planning and policy design for non-residential buildings in rapidly developing cities. • A performance-based framework was developed to predict urban non-residential building energy demand. • Three policy scenarios combining efficiency improvement, electrification, and power-sector decarbonization were evaluated. • Primary energy use decreased by up to 94% and GHG emissions by up to 93% by 2050 under the most ambitious scenario. • Electrification alone showed limited potential for reducing primary energy consumption. • The results support urban energy planning and carbon-neutral building policy design.