The link between trade and emissions is multifaceted, extending beyond export–import balances. While prior studies emphasise emissions embodied in net exports, they often overlook those avoided through imports. Using input–output tables, this paper presents a unified accounting framework to measure emissions embodied in exports and those avoided by importing instead of producing domestically, highlighting spatial differences in production emissions. Results show that in 2021, exports accounted for 31% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) and 25% of particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions. Yet trade, by enabling high-intensity producers to import rather than produce, reduced global GHG emissions by up to 2.2% annually between 2004 and 2021. In contrast, trade increased PM2.5 emissions by up to 1%, as high-emission countries export to low-emission countries. These findings reveal trade’s uneven environmental impacts and underscore the need to consider spatial variations in emission intensity when evaluating its role in global mitigation efforts.
Ebadi et al. (Wed,) studied this question.