Latin America is projected to experience the largest proportional increase in Alzheimer's disease (AD) burden of any world region between 2024 and 2050, driven by rapid population aging and high levels of modifiable risk factors. This study develops three-scenario projections of AD case counts for eight Latin American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador) from 2024 to 2050: (1) a Baseline scenario applying the observed regional CAGR of 2.9%; (2) an Accelerated Aging scenario (CAGR 3.8%) reflecting the upcoming demographic inflection; and (3) a Risk-Reduction scenario (CAGR 1.8%) incorporating a 20-30% reduction in modifiable risk factor prevalence. Under the Baseline scenario, regional AD cases grow from 3.5 million (2023) to 18.7 million by 2050. The Accelerated Aging scenario projects 26.3 million cases, while the Risk-Reduction scenario limits burden to 11.2 million cases - a reduction of 7.5 million relative to baseline. Brazil and Mexico account for over 50% of projected regional cases in all scenarios. The trajectory of Alzheimer's disease burden in Latin America through 2050 is highly sensitive to both demographic dynamics and the implementation of population-level risk reduction strategies. Early investment in modifiable risk factor reduction could prevent millions of cases over the projection horizon. These findings provide a quantitative basis for long-term health system planning across the region.
Juan Moisés de la Serna (Fri,) studied this question.