Host jumps need not be common just because spillover is

Key Points

• The research investigates whether frequently spilling pathogens are indeed more likely to emerge and cause pandemics.
• Analyzed historical data on pathogen spillover events and their emergence rates.
• Utilized statistical models to compare different pathogens regarding spillover frequency and emergence potential.
• Found no strong correlation between spillover frequency and the likelihood of emergence.
• Identified that many heavily spilling pathogens did not become pandemics, contradicting common assumptions.