The Future of Snowpack Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (USA)

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), through the process of snow accumulation, to snowmelt, to streamflow runoff, provides a critical water source to approximately 40 million residents in the Southwestern United States. Given the importance of late fall–winter–early spring (October, November, December, January, February, March, or ONDJFM), cumulative precipitation, future estimates of ONDJFM cumulative precipitation, and potential drought occurrence would provide a benefit to water managers and planners. Previous research efforts successfully reconstructed (extended the period of record) the regional April 1st Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the UCRB using tree-ring chronologies and reconstructed climate (El Niño–Southern Oscillation or ENSO). The current research efforts differ by (a) incorporating future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 predictions of ONDJFM cumulative precipitation (in lieu of April 1st SWE) at a single station location (Kendall R.S.) in the UCRB; (b) reconstructing ONDJFM cumulative precipitation (in lieu of April 1st SWE) using tree-ring chronologies and ENSO; and (c) evaluating an alternative reconstructed ENSO index. The reconstructed record, recent past observations, and future (SSP 5-8.5) ONDJFM cumulative precipitation were then combined to provide a paleo perspective of future drought. Results indicate that extreme ONDJFM cumulative precipitation drought periods projected for the ~2040s were exceeded in the reconstructed record. A pattern of alternating wet and dry conditions was also identified, consisting of a wet (pluvial) period in the 2030s, followed by drought conditions in the 2040s, and another wet period in the 2050s. Many of the extreme future wet (pluvial) periods exceeded those in the recent record and reconstructed record.