AbstractAfrican swine fever (ASF) has emerged as a major transboundary threat to pig production systems in Arunachal Pradesh, necessitating a detailed understanding of its epidemiology. This study analyzed laboratory-confirmed ASF outbreaks reported between 2020 and 2025 using integrated temporal, spatial, and positivity-based approaches. Surveillance data from NIHSAD, NERDDL, and the State Department of Animal Husbandry & Veterinary Services covered 18 confirmed outbreak locations across seven districts. Temporal analysis revealed a clear cyclic pattern marked by three major epidemic waves (2020, 2022, and 2025) and a strong bi-modal seasonal trend, with outbreaks consistently peaking during the pre-monsoon (March–April) and post-monsoon (August–November) periods. Spatial analysis performed in R demonstrated significant clustering of outbreaks, with persistent hotspots in Papum Pare and East Siang and emerging hotspots in Leparada, West Siang, and Lower Siang. Directional diffusion mapping indicated progressive westward and southward spread of ASF along major transportation and trade routes. District-wise positivity ranged from 66.67% to 100%, with the highest infection intensity observed in Lohit, West Siang, Lower Siang, and Longding. Overall, the combined spatio-temporal assessment highlights predictable high-risk seasons, persistent transmission corridors, and human-mediated movement as key drivers of ASF spread. These findings underscore the need for targeted surveillance, strengthened biosecurity, and movement control strategies to mitigate ongoing and future ASF incursions in Arunachal Pradesh.
Garam et al. (Wed,) studied this question.