Monthly precipitation amounts in various regions of Siberia are a key indicator of fire hazard based on weather conditions. Therefore, their long-term forecasts must be considered when planning the activities of the relevant firefighting units. However, the accuracy of such forecasts developed using traditional methods does not exceed 0.7-0.8. The authors' proposed method for developing similar forecasts may have a higher accuracy, but only in areas where the factors considered in the forecast are significant, provided that the process under study lags them by a time equal to the forecast lead time, and if their development scenarios are not expected to change in the future. The future is not predetermined, but the immutability of such scenarios within it is more likely if it occurred in the past. Consequently, this method may be effective if the relationships between the process under study and the factors considered in the forecast have remained unchanged or have strengthened in the past. It is hypothesized that during the period of modern global warming (1979-2024), variations in solar activity, a factor of the process under study, possessed these properties. However, the areas of Siberia for which this hypothesis holds have not previously been identified. The purpose of this article is to identify such areas for various months of the fire season. It has been established that there are areas in Siberia for which the relationships between the process under study and this factor, preceding it by 1-5 months, were significant in 2010-2024, and these relationships steadily strengthened over the period 1979-2024 (i.e., the development scenarios for the process under study and the factor under consideration have not changed in the past). Such areas were identified for various months of the fire season, but their total area is greatest in June.
Kholoptsev et al. (Mon,) studied this question.