The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and its descendants accumulated unprecedented numbers of spike substitutions yet remained transmissible, implying compensatory mechanisms that preserve entry while eroding humoral immunity. We analyzed 32 variants for sequence-level mutation, physicochemical profiling, and epitope disruption; 25 had growth-advantage estimates, and 18 underwent molecular dynamics/MM-PBSA simulations. We applied a systems-virology framework to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD), integrating immunodominance-weighted epitope conservation (567 B-cell and 97 T-cell epitopes) across variants (Wuhan-Hu-1 to KP.3) with molecular dynamics, molecular mechanics Poisson–Boltzmann surface area (MM-PBSA) binding energetics, and deep mutational scanning (DMS) benchmarking. B-cell epitope conservation declined from a median of 72.7% in pre-Omicron variants to 28.8% in BA.1 and 10.6% in KP.3, and was strongly inversely associated with a breakthrough-infection proxy (Spearman ρ = −0.8246, p < 0.001), whereas RBD T-cell epitopes remained comparatively conserved (91.5% to 87.2%). Despite the loss of the ancestral K417–ACE2 D30 salt bridge, Omicron reconfigured the interface via alternative electrostatic contacts (Q493R–E35 and Q498R–D38), producing compensatory interactions captured by MM-PBSA, but with only modest agreement with DMS affinity changes (r = 0.682, p = 0.007), consistent with enthalpy–entropy compensation. Finally, mutation tolerance shifted toward stronger epistatic buffering in Omicron (two-fold higher epistasis than pre-Omicron; p = 0.0093), enabling extensive antigenic change without structural collapse. Together, these results support a multi-objective evolutionary strategy—epitope erosion, interface rewiring, and epistatic compensation—that can be operationalized to prioritize emerging lineages for surveillance and to inform vaccine designs that emphasize conserved T-cell targets.
Soliman et al. (Thu,) studied this question.