Atlantic Canada faces significant tropical cyclone (TC) threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood hazards is quantified from a historical baseline (1979–2014) to two future periods: a near future (2024–2059) and a far future (2060–2095). Hazard fields are constructed from large ensembles of physics-informed synthetic TC tracks, and changes are evaluated in return-period wind speeds and in inundation depth and extent, with sea-level rise included for flood projections. The second stage estimates TC risk using wind as an operational proxy for total loss, combining the simulated wind fields with exposure data and a vulnerability relationship to compute expected damages. This design clarifies how physical drivers change and how those shifts translate into loss potential without requiring fully coupled compound-loss modeling. Results indicate an intensification of wind extremes and a substantial amplification of coastal inundation, yielding higher wind-proxy risk for many coastal communities. Spatial patterns show a heterogeneous escalation of risk concentrated along exposed shorelines and urban corridors. This comprehensive analysis of both hazard evolution and proxy risk provides decision-ready evidence on where and by how much TC losses are likely to grow. The approach clarifies the link between physical drivers and loss potential, ensuring compatibility with standard wind-centric workflows used in engineering and insurance practice.
Naeini et al. (Wed,) studied this question.