Pesticide reduction, climate change, and food security: evidence from rice production in China

Introduction The scientific pesticide reduction is important for sustainable agriculture. However, the general public and scholars have been concerned about whether extreme pesticide reduction will lead to a decline in grain yield and thus affect the stability of food security in China. Methods This study attempted to evaluate the dynamic impact of pesticide reduction ratio on rice yield using a threshold regression model based on survey data from 1,120 rice farmers in China. Results The results show that there is a single threshold effect of the pesticide reduction ratio on rice yield. The threshold value of pesticide reduction of the sample farmers is 33.25%. It suggests that moderate pesticide reduction does not affect rice yield. However, excessive reduction of pesticides is closely linked to diminished pest control effectiveness, which may increase the likelihood of rice yield losses. Furthermore, it can be found that rice pest outbreaks are larger and more frequent under climates such as drought, flooding and high temperature, which could be faced with greater rice yield losses if pesticide use continues to be reduced. Discussion The policy makers should not be blind and adventurous, but develop scientific and reasonable pesticide reduction plans according to local conditions. Importantly, dynamic and flexible performance assessment targets for pesticide reduction should be set to cope with the impacts brought by extreme climate change.