Combined Factors Influencing the Severity of Elderly-Pedestrian Crashes in Local Areas of Korea Using Classification and Regression Trees and Sensitivity Analysis

This study investigated injury severity in 18,528 police-reported vehicle-to-pedestrian crashes involving elderly pedestrians in legally classified local areas of South Korea during 2012–2021. Injury severity was coded into four ordered categories: fatal, serious, minor, and reported injury. To stabilize scenario extraction from a categorical crash database, an integrated screening workflow was applied, including near-zero-variance filtering, redundancy control among overlapping roadway encodings, representative-variable selection within redundant groups, and chi-square association checks. Classification and regression tree (CART) modeling was then used to identify rule-based combinations of environmental, roadway, driver, pedestrian, and vehicle factors associated with elevated severity, while tree complexity was controlled through cost-complexity pruning and 10-fold cross-validation. A scenario-based sensitivity analysis was further conducted to evaluate counterfactual shifts in severity distributions under targeted control of key conditions within representative high-risk scenarios. The results showed that severe outcomes were concentrated in stacked-risk combinations rather than in single factors alone. A dominant pathway involved nighttime conditions combined with maneuver-related driving contexts and speeding-related violations. High-fatality scenarios persisted even when speed-related predictors were excluded, underscoring the roles of nighttime exposure, visibility limitations, conflict-prone roadway settings, heavy-vehicle involvement, and pedestrian exposure behaviors. The proposed framework translates administrative crash records into concise, operationally interpretable scenarios and intervention-relevant evidence for local-area safety.