Deterrent and Experiential Effects: the Problem of Causal Order in Perceptual Deterrence Research

This paper reports on the first longitudinal study to consider the relationship between perceptions of legal sanctions and self-reported criminality. The longitudinal design helps to address the problem of interpreting causal order that traditionally has troubled deterrence researchers using cross-sectional data. Self-reports of unlawful behavior (petty theft, marijuana use, payment using bad checks) over the past year are correlated both with perceptions of legal sanctions measured a year earlier (Time 1) and with perceptions of sanctions at the time of the self-reports (Time 2), for a random sample of 300 undergraduates at a large state university. The principal advantage of this method is that it affords a comparison of "deterrent" effects (perceived sanctions at Time 1 and subsequent reported behavior) with what are termed "experiential" effects (reported behavior and subsequent perceived sanctions at Time 2). The latter have been consistently treated as deterrent effects by prior researchers using cross-sectional data. For perceived certainty of arrest for generalized oth ers, the observed deterrent effect was weak and in every instance less than the experiential effect. However, perceived certainty of one's own arrest produced modest but consistent deterrent as well as experiential effects. A path analysis suggests that the deterrent effect of perceived certainty (personal or aggregate) is much weaker than once believed and the experiential effect is substantially stronger. The implications of these findings for an interactive model of de terrence are considered.