Sustainable Development in Africa: A Comprehensive Analysis of GDP, CO2 Emissions, and Socio-Economic Factors

The fight against climate change is gaining momentum, with a growing focus on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and mitigating environmental impacts. Africa, the continent most vulnerable to global warming, faces unique challenges in this context. This study examines the long-term association among CO2 emissions, economic growth, and different socio-economic factors in 36 African countries from 1990 to 2020. Employing the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, along with U-test and Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality analyses, our study reveals substantial long-term connections amongst CO2 emissions and factors such as economic growth, trade openness, renewable energy consumption, urbanization, and population dynamics. The findings support the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, indicating that CO2 emissions initially increase with GDP per capita growth but begin to decline after a turning point at approximately 10,614.75 USD. However, the evidence for this turning point remains weak, suggesting that most African countries have not yet achieved decoupling. Renewable energy consumption and urbanization are negatively associated with CO2 emissions, while trade openness and GDP per capita show positive correlations. Causality analysis reveals bidirectional relationships among most variables, except for population growth and CO2 emissions, which may involve other moderating factors. The findings highlight the urgent need for integrated policies that advance sustainable development by focusing on renewable energy adoption, sustainable urbanization, and green growth strategies. Policymakers should prioritize initiatives that harmonize economic growth with environmental sustainability, ensuring a lasting balance between development and ecological preservation across Africa.