Job Polarization in Europe

The structure of employment is always changing, and economists are always trying to understand those changes. In the 1990s the idea of skill-biased technological change (SBTC) was used to understand the shift in employment toward more educated workers (see David H. Autor and Lawrence F. Katz 1999, for a survey). However, in recent years, it has become appar ent that a more nuanced approach is needed. The idea of SBTC might lead one to predict a uni form shift in employment away from low-skilled and toward high-skilled occupations, but studies for the United States (Autor, Katz, and Melissa S. Kearney 2006) and the United Kingdom (Goos and Manning 2007) have shown that there is growth in employment in both the high est-skilled (professional and managerial) and lowest-skilled (personal services) occupations, with declining employment in the middle of the distribution (manufacturing and office jobs). This is what Goos and Manning (2007) term job polarization (although see the introduc to Goos and Manning 2007 for antecedents of these ideas). There are several hypotheses about the rea sons for job polarization. First, the routiniza tion hypothesis (first put forward by Autor, Frank Levy, and Richard Murnane 2003) sug gests that the effect of technological progress is to replace routine labor which tends to be clerical and craft jobs in the middle of the wage distribution. Second, there is the view that globalization in general, and offshoring in par ticular, is an important source of change in the job structure in the richest countries (see, for example, Alan S. Blinder 2007). Third, there may be a link between job polarization and