A System for Forecasting Strategic Crises: Findings and Speculations About Conflict in the Middle East

This article presents a system for forecasting increasing tension and war in the Middle East and illustrates to those studying crisis‐prone regions of the world an early warning system for predicting international tension. In the first part of the article are discussed the theory, methodology, and results obtained in testing the system, while the appendices present the more technical aspects. In the conclusion of this article it is held that crises follow stable behavioral patterns, and that although the analysis may deal with international actors in a mechanical fashion, it is the most viable and valid solution to a critical human problem.