Fragmented Rationality

This paper introduces the concept of “Fragmented Rationality” to explain a structural تحول in state decision-making, wherein multiple institutional actors operate according to internally coherent logics yet fail to converge into a unified strategic outcome. Using the Hormuz crisis as an empirical laboratory, the study demonstrates how this condition differs from classical models of managed pluralism, particularly those outlined by Graham Allison, by highlighting the absence of an integrative mechanism قادر على تحويل التعدد إلى قرار. The analysis further advances the concept of “Mutual Chaotic Instrumentalization,” describing how external actors—such as China, Russia, and regional powers—exploit this fragmentation, thereby reinforcing and stabilizing it as a systemic environment rather than a transient dysfunction. Through a comparative lens drawing on both contemporary policy structures and classical Islamic political theory (notably al-Mawardi and Ibn Khaldun), the paper argues that fragmentation is no longer merely a symptom of ضعف مؤسسي، بل تحوّل إلى نظام قائم بذاته، تتكيف معه القوى الدولية وتستثمر فيه. Ultimately, the study concludes that the strategic challenge for regional actors is no longer تفسير سلوك القوى الكبرى، بل تطوير قدرة ذاتية على الفعل within an international order increasingly shaped by incoherent yet self-reproducing decision systems.