On the estimation of antecedent wetness conditions in rainfall–runoff modelling

Abstract The analysis of the physical processes involved in a conceptual model of soil water content balance is addressed with the objective of its application as a component of rainfall–runoff modelling. The model uses routinely measured meteorological variables (rainfall and air temperature) and incorporates a limited number of significant parameters. Its performance in estimating the soil moisture temporal pattern was tested through local measurements of volumetric water content carried out continuously on an experimental plot located in central Italy. The analysis was carried out for different periods in order to test both the representation of infiltration at the short time‐scale and drainage and evapotranspiration processes at the long time‐scale. A robust conceptual model was identified that incorporated the Green–Ampt approach for infiltration and a gravity‐driven approximation for drainage. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the selected model to assess the model robustness and to identify the more significant parameters involved in the principal processes that control the soil moisture temporal pattern. The usefulness of the selected model was tested for the estimation of the initial wetness conditions for rainfall–runoff modelling at the catchment scale. Specifically, the runoff characteristics (runoff depth and peak discharge) were found to be dependent on the pre‐event surface soil moisture. Both observed values and those estimated by the model gave good results. On the contrary, with the antecedent wetness conditions furnished by two versions of the antecedent precipitation index (API), large errors were obtained. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.