ABSTRACT This study empirically examines the structural determinants of energy independence (EIND) in Türkiye over the period 1990–2023, with a particular focus on Total Factor Productivity (TFP), Energy Efficiency R&D Effectiveness (EERDE), and Renewable Energy R&D Effectiveness (RENRDE). Grounded in Endogenous Growth Theory and the Porter Hypothesis, the analysis investigates how productivity dynamics and innovation effectiveness contribute to reducing external energy dependence in an energy‐import‐dependent economy. Employing quantile regression techniques, the findings reveal that TFP exerts a positive but diminishing effect on EIND at higher quantiles, indicating that productivity‐driven gains weaken as import dependence declines. EERDE demonstrates a statistically significant impact primarily at lower and middle quantiles, suggesting that institutional capacity and financial constraints limit its effectiveness at advanced stages. In contrast, RENRDE exhibits a strong, positive, and persistent influence on EIND across upper quantiles, highlighting the critical role of renewable energy innovation in achieving energy self‐sufficiency. Overall, the results provide partial support for both theoretical frameworks and emphasize that the sustainability of productivity‐led EIND depends on institutional stability, policy continuity, and effective R&D governance. The study concludes that strengthening domestic innovation capacity, improving the effectiveness of energy‐related R&D, and accelerating renewable technology localization are essential policy pathways for advancing Türkiye's progress toward SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).
Naimoglu et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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