China has expanded forest cover through the world’s largest afforestation initiative and the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), yet national fragmentation trends remain uncertain because most assessments aggregate forest types. Here we map fragmentation dynamics of natural and planted forests across China (1990–2020) using composite structural and connectivity metrics. Planted forest fragmentation declined overall, whereas natural forest fragmentation increased across 60–64% of provinces and counties, with hotspots in southern tropical–subtropical regions. Expanding tree plantations became a major contributor to fragmentation, with 56% of gains occurring within the 1-km natural forest edge zone. Their effects were exacerbated by synergistic interactions with logging and cropland expansion. NFPP-implemented counties experienced significantly smaller increases in natural forest fragmentation, indicating a positive role of the NFPP. We identify 219,400 km² of conservation priority areas and recommend expanding NFPP in lowland southern China while strengthening nature reserves to safeguard intact temperate forests. China’s natural forests became increasingly fragmented from 1990 to 2020, driven largely by expanding tree plantations and their interactions with logging, cropland change, and elevation, based on national mapping of structural and connectivity metrics.
Li et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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