US life expectancy declined after 2014 amid rising drug-poisoning and suicide mortality. We assessed whether recent, large statutory minimum-wage increases affected these outcomes. Using 2010-2019 National Vital Statistics System mortality data, we analyzed adults aged 25 and up and exploited cross-state adoption and differential exposure by education (no college versus at least some college) in a triple-differences framework. To address staggered adoption and treatment heterogeneity, we implemented a two-stage imputation estimator. We studied deaths per capita for poisonings, drug overdoses, opioid-related overdoses, and suicides. Twenty-six states (including Washington, D.C.) enacted statutory minimum wage increases while 25 did not. Pre-treatment placebo estimates show little evidence of systematic pre-existing trends that would confound the results. Average post-treatment mortality effects associated with minimum wage increases are generally small: poisonings -0.9% (95% CI -6.8%, +5.0%); suicides -1.0% (-7.5%, +5.5%); overdoses +0.5% (-5.2%, +6.2%); opioid-involved overdoses -2.8% (-10.2%, +4.6%). When restricting to states with 50% statutory hikes or higher, we reach similar conclusions. At magnitudes observed during 2010-2019, minimum-wage increases had, at most, modest effects on deaths of despair and are unlikely to meaningfully reduce drug overdose or suicide mortality in the medium term.
Mizushima et al. (Mon,) studied this question.