An Empirical Analysis of GST Revenue Collection in India: Seasonal Cycles, Regional Patterns, and Growth Trends

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) has become a key pillar of India’s revenue system, offering insight into the country’s economic activity and tax compliance behavior. This study examines GST revenue patterns using monthly data from 2021 to 2025 and state-wise data from 2020–21 to 2024–25. The analysis is guided by three objectives: to understand seasonal and cyclical movements in GST collections, to explore regional variations across states, and to assess long-term growth trends using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). A descriptive and analytical research design has been adopted for the study. The data used is entirely secondary in nature, sourced from official government reports such as GST portals, publications of the Ministry of Finance, and Reserve Bank of India statistics. For analysis, simple statistical tools such as trend analysis, percentage growth, and CAGR have been applied. Monthly data is used to identify recurring seasonal patterns, while state-wise data is grouped into regions (North, South, East, West, and Northeast) to examine regional disparities. The findings indicate that GST collections follow a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. Higher revenues are observed during April and the festive months around October, while relatively lower collections are seen during May and June. These trends reflect the influence of business cycles and consumption behavior. Regional analysis shows that economically stronger states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu contribute a larger share to GST revenue, whereas northeastern states and smaller territories contribute less, though gradual improvement is visible. CAGR results reveal a steady increase in GST collections across most states over the study period, suggesting improved compliance and economic recovery in recent years. However, growth rates differ across regions, indicating uneven development.