In this paper, a sugarcane pokkah boeng SEIR model with time delay due to removal or chemical treatment of diseased sugarcane plants is investigated. By analyzing the characteristic equations, the stability of each feasible equilibrium of the system is discussed, and the existence of a Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium is established. Furthermore, by choosing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we show that Hopf bifurcations can occur as τ crosses some critical values. Meanwhile, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian model to conduct statistical inference on time delay and combine it with the former to carry out an empirical analysis on the prevention and control of sugarcane pokkah boeng. These provide a more comprehensive and effective theoretical basis for decision-making in the prevention and control of sugarcane pokkah boeng. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main theoretical results.
Li et al. (Wed,) studied this question.