Introduction of new technologies into the market: quantifying risks for a fairer valuation

Technology valuation is a fundamental tool in innovation to catalyse technology transfer from entrepreneurs to the market. However, the typical risks associated with introducing new technologies are not often adequately assessed during the valuation process. The absence of a rational and quantitative approach to risk assessment can lead to an unfair valuation, potentially resulting in inconveniences related to underestimation or overestimation of the technology's true worth. We propose a structured technique to measure the risk premium associated with new technology's market entry. It enables a comprehensive and rational technology valuation using the discount rate of the discounted cash flow method. We demonstrate the practical application of this technique through a case study involving a particular technology under development at the Nuclear Technology Development Center. Technology specialists and managers validated the technique and results. It contributes to a fairer valuation of technologies, facilitating interaction between entrepreneurs, investors, and developers.