Impact of demonetization on diffusion of mobile payment service in India

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the antecedents of the behavioral intention and adoption of mobile payment services like m-wallets and m-banking by users in India. This is done by examining the diffusion of mobile payment technology within an extended framework of the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model. The study attempts to extend the UTAUT model further by introducing three more constructs, namely- perceived cost, perceived risk and demonetization effect and analyzes the impact of demonetization that happened in India from November 8, 2016 to December 30, 2016 on the mobile payment service adoption process. Demonetization event is a case in point to assess whether forced adoption breaks the normal diffusion process or lends support to the same in the long term. Design/methodology/approach A survey was conducted in order to gauge the intention behind the adoption of mobile payment modes by users in India. The questionnaire was administered online solely and 880 responses were received within a period of 20 days from February 3, 2017, to February 23, 2017, using Google Forms as a medium. Usable responses were 640. The study adopted partial least square based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) technique to analyze the relation between latent variables: performance expectation, effort expectation, social influence, facilitating conditions, perceived cost, perceived risk, demonetization effect, behavioral intention and usage. For this purpose, SmartPLS3.0 software was used to create path diagrams and calculate estimate the significance of factor loadings using the bootstrap technique. Findings The key results indicates that behavioral intention, demonetization and facilitating conditions have a positive and significant impact on the adoption of mobile payment services in India. Overall, Model 3, which was extended UTAUT model, was observed to be a better model in explaining the antecedents of behavioral intention and usage. In addition to UTAUT antecedents, perceived cost and perceived risk proved to have additional explanatory power as antecedents of behavioral intention. Age acts as a moderating variable consistently across three models, implying that younger users give more importance to effortless interface of mobile payment services and get more influenced by peers and society that shapes their intention to use mobile payment services. Originality/value It is first of its kind attempt to assess the role of Demonetization in examining the antecedents of behavioral intention and adoption of mobile payment services by users in India under an extended UTAUT model. This study comprehensively examined the impact of forced adoption of mobile payment services by users in India in a natural setting provided by demonetization event that took place in India by conducting a primary survey right itself in the month of February, 2017 to get first hand response from the Indian users.