A Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting Rapid Firm Growth

A significant, and often decisive, contribution to the growth of GDP and employment in the economy, according to data repeatedly verified using broad international data, is provided by a small stratum of High-growth firms, (HGFs, or “gazelle firms”). However, according to the prevailing in the literature, the effectiveness of state support for the HGF is questioned due to the unstable and unpredictable nature of their growth. Many of the companies that received assistance not only fail to grow at their previous rates but also reduce production. The article proposes an approach to forecasting the continuation of rapid growth of a firm based on the assessment of the parameters of the free market niche that is available to the firm using a set of nonlinear micromodels. Based on the analysis of dynamics of 24 thousand permanent Russian firms for the period 2003–2022, firms were selected that had adapted well to the changing trends in the development of the Russian economy after the global crisis of 2008–2009 (95th percentile in terms of revenue growth rates and above for 2010–2014). It has been established that within this dynamic group of firms, large HGFs will demonstrate sustainable rapid growth in the future (2014–2022). On the contrary, the smallest and smallest HGFs, after the end of the period when they experienced rapid growth, experience a decline in revenue. The identified patterns may be useful for improving the methods for selecting firms supported as HGFs within the framework of industrial policy.