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This article investigates the role of historical beliefs and experiences in threat perception. Drawing on the results of a representative survey in Lithuania, it demonstrates a link between public beliefs about the Soviet period and public assessments of the likelihood of Russian military invasion, NATO disintegration, and diminishing levels of national security. Additionally, the study places historical beliefs within a tapestry of other theoretically-informed factors related to the perception of military threats. The results speak in favor of social complexity, where past and present come to inform the Lithuanian public’s understanding of the future.
Lašas et al. (Thu,) studied this question.