Strategic prioritization of sustainable management in the Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve using an integrated SWOT and ANP framework

Abstract Arasbaran represents one of Iran’s most valuable forest ecosystems, recognized as a sensitive and strategic biome due to its high biodiversity, genetic significance, and its critical role in regional environmental sustainability. Despite its protected status, the region faces persistent pressures arising from land-use change, livelihood dependence, and institutional constraints, underscoring the need for evidence-based management strategies. In this study, key ecological, social, and institutional factors influencing the Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve were systematically identified and classified using a Strengths–Weaknesses–Opportunities–Threats (SWOT) framework. These factors were subsequently structured into criteria and sub-criteria and evaluated through a network-based Analytic Network Process (ANP) to account for interdependencies and to quantify their relative importance. The integrated SWOT–ANP analysis identified strength–opportunity (SO) strategies as the highest-priority management pathway, indicating that sustainable outcomes are most effectively achieved by mobilizing existing ecological assets, strengthening social participation, enhancing education and awareness, and integrating scientific knowledge with management practice. Weakness–opportunity (WO) strategies ranked second, emphasizing the role of institutional reform, capacity building, and community empowerment as enabling conditions for proactive management. In contrast, strength–threat (ST) and weakness–threat (WT) strategies received lower priority, reflecting the limited long-term effectiveness of approaches centered primarily on restriction and deterrence. Overall, the findings demonstrate that sustainability in Arasbaran is best advanced through capacity-oriented, participatory, and knowledge-based governance rather than control-focused interventions. While the specific strategy rankings are context-dependent, the SWOT–ANP framework provides a transferable decision-support approach for managing complex forest ecosystems facing multi-layered ecological and socio-institutional challenges.