Left Ventricular Mass at MRI and Long-term Risk of Cardiovascular Events: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Background Few data exist on the long-term risk prediction of elevated left ventricular (LV) mass quantified by MRI for cardiovascular (CV) events in a contemporary, ethnically diverse cohort. Purpose To assess the long-term impact of elevated LV mass on CV events in a prospective cohort study of a multiethnic population in relationship to risk factors and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. Materials and Methods The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, or MESA (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00005487), is an ongoing prospective multicenter population-based study in the United States. A total of 6814 participants (age range, 45–84 years) free of clinical CV disease at baseline were enrolled between 2000 and 2002. In 4988 participants (2613 52.4% women; mean age, 62 years ± 10.1 standard deviation) followed over 15 years for CV events, LV mass was derived from cardiac MRI at baseline enrollment by using semiautomated software at a central core laboratory. Cox proportional hazard models, Kaplan-Meier curves, and z scores were applied to assess the impact of LV hypertrophy. Results A total of 290 participants had hard coronary heart disease (CHD) events (207 myocardial infarctions MIs, 95 CHD deaths), 57 had other CV disease–related deaths, and 215 had heart failure (HF). LV hypertrophy was an independent predictor of hard CHD events (hazard ratio HR: 2.7; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.9, 3.8), MI (HR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.8, 4.0), CHD death (HR: 4.3; 95% CI: 2.5, 7.3), other CV death (HR: 7.5; 95% CI: 4.2, 13.5), and HF (HR: 5.4; 95% CI: 3.8, 7.5) (P < .001 for all end points). LV hypertrophy was a stronger predictor than CAC for CHD death, other CV death, and HF (z scores: 5.4 vs 3.4, 6.8 vs 2.4, and 9.7 vs 3.2 for LV hypertrophy vs CAC, respectively). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated an increased risk of CV events in participants with LV hypertrophy, particularly after 5 years. Conclusion Elevated left ventricular mass was strongly associated with hard coronary heart disease events, other cardiovascular death, and heart failure over 15 years of follow-up, independent of traditional risk factors and coronary artery calcium score. © RSNA, 2019 See also the editorial by Hanneman in this issue.