Stranded futures? Quantifying the asset risks of industrial decarbonisation in developed economies

Industrial decarbonisation is accelerating across developed economies, raising concerns about the premature retirement of carbon-intensive assets. This study provides a cross-sector assessment of stranded-asset risks across five hard-to-abate industries ‑iron and steel, oil refineries, chemicals, pulp and paper, and electricity generation - in six major economies (EU, US, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia). The analysis integrates 36 expert interviews, surveys of 207 industry professionals and 500 technology adopters, and asset-level modelling based on emission intensity, asset age, technology type and carbon -pricing exposure. In doing so, the paper seeks to broaden conceptual debates about potential stranded assets from the deployment of new technologies to decarbonise energy-intensive industries that often being rarely discussed which is important to estimate both probabilistic risk scores and potential stranded values under three policy scenarios. The analysis quantifies sectoral risk scores, stranded-value estimates, and transition pressures associated with carbon pricing and regulatory change. Results show that chemicals and refineries exhibit the highest average stranded-asset risk, while steel and electricity hold the greatest total value at risk under accelerated policy scenarios. Regional comparison underscores the EU's stringent climate policies and investment levels as mitigating long-term exposure relative to Australia and South Korea. The findings highlight the need for coordinated policy design, transition finance, and managed asset retirement strategies to reduce financial losses and support equitable industrial decarbonisation.