A prospective study of the precursors to problem drinking in young adulthood.

This study was part of the Jyväskylä Longitudinal Study on Social Development. The subjects (196 males, 173 females) were studied at age 8, 14 and 26. Three components in drinking habits were obtained at age 26: social, problem and controlled drinking. Moderate to severe problem drinking was obtained for 26% of the men and 1% of the women, and mild problem drinking for 23% of the men and 15% of the women. Problem drinking (defined by the CAGE Questionnaire, arrest for alcohol abuse and other indicators of heavy drinking) was directly accounted for by poor school success at age 14 and, for men, by conduct problems and low anxiety. Variables at age 8 that contributed indirectly to adult problem drinking were aggression, low anxiety, low prosociality and poor school success for men, and high anxiety and poor school success for women. Women and men differed in the effect of social anxiety; in men, anxiety was a protective factor against problem drinking; in women, it was a risk factor. Although conduct problems often precede severe problem drinking, other risk factors may exist among sons of alcoholic parents. Parental drinking had a significant threshold effect on male off-springs' drinking: if parental drinking was low, there was less problem drinking among the male offspring than if a mild dependence on alcohol was observed in the parents.