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The simulation model discussed in this paper evolved from problems encountered in estimating future United States cropland availability as part of the OBERS agricultural projection system. Available literature describing land use changes indicate that land resource economists have not been concerned with projecting future patterns of land use implied by historic observations. Some research has involved selection of optimum cropping patterns for agricultural cropland subject to alternative flood plain management policies. However, the broader application of such models between sectors (agriculture, industrial, urban, etc.), in the main, has been ignored. Because of “historical bias” there has not been a concerted effort to develop analytical capabilities for use in evaluating the future implications of alternative regional and/or national policies designed to alter trends in land use shifts.
Bruce O. Burnham (Sun,) studied this question.