Is China's public housing programme destined to fail? Evidence from the city of Changsha

Abstract Since 2011, China has implemented a large‐scale public housing programme, constructing tens of millions of apartments to cope with increasing housing shortages and difficulties. Using the case study of Changsha, this study explored the likely fate of this inchoate but significant social policy initiative. We propose a ghettoisation framework for the underlying and interrelated socio‐economic mechanisms that produce and maintain the problem‐ridden public housing development. By applying the analysis framework, this study assessed the status of physical, economic and social decay in public rental housing in Changsha. It is concluded that Chinese public housing projects foster physical dilapidation, economic deprivation and social marginalisation and, at the extreme, may be turned into urban ghettos similar to those found in many other countries, if this downward spiral of physical, economic and social decay persists. Chinese city governments have been aware of the physical dilapidation of public rental housing and have endeavoured with physical improvement and upgradation and government procurement of operation and management services. However, these endeavours are doomed to eventually be fruitless without systematic amelioration of economic and social decay. This study can be applied to worldwide cities with public housing development programmes, by guiding policymakers to advocate for concentrated efforts in problem‐ridden projects and for broader, system‐wide reforms to prevent the worst case scenario of ghettoisation.