Rice crop yield prediction in India using support vector machines

Food production in India is largely dependent on cereal crops including rice, wheat and various pulses. The sustainability and productivity of rice growing areas is dependent on suitable climatic conditions. Variability in seasonal climate conditions can have detrimental effect, with incidents of drought reducing production. Developing better techniques to predict crop productivity in different climatic conditions can assist farmer and other stakeholders in better decision making in terms of agronomy and crop choice. Machine learning techniques can be used to improve prediction of crop yield under different climatic scenarios. This paper presents the review on use of such machine learning technique for Indian rice cropping areas. This paper discusses the experimental results obtained by applying SMO classifier using the WEKA tool on the dataset of 27 districts of Maharashtra state, India. The dataset considered for the rice crop yield prediction was sourced from publicly available Indian Government records. The parameters considered for the study were precipitation, minimum temperature, average temperature, maximum temperature and reference crop evapotranspiration, area, production and yield for the Kharif season (June to November) for the years 1998 to 2002. For the present study the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), relative absolute error (RAE) and root relative squared error (RRSE) were calculated. The experimental results showed that the performance of other techniques on the same dataset was much better compared to SMO.