Impacts of anthropogenic activities on land use land cover change dynamics in the Ogun River Basin, Nigeria

ABSTRACT In this research, the impacts of past (1984–2020) and future (2040–2060) changes in Ogun River Basin's land use land cover (LULC) dynamics were studied. LULC changes were classified using the Random Forest algorithm in Google Earth Engine on Landsat imagery from 1984, 2000, and 2020 epochs. The multi-layer perceptron-neural network and Markov Chain in the Land Change Modeler were used to predict the LULC maps under various future scenarios. The results revealed significant alterations in the LULC pattern. Forests, wetlands, and water bodies decreased between the epochs 1984 and 2020 by −29.0%, −58.3%, and −84.5%, respectively, whereas farmland and built-up areas expanded by 104 and 20%, respectively. The Business-as-Usual scenario is anticipated to result in an increase in farmland of 3.73% in 2040 and 3.89% in 2060, respectively, at the detriment of forest cover and wetland areas, which are projected to decrease. Under the afforestation scenario, the forest is predicted to expand at the expense of farmland and built-up areas, which are anticipated to expand by 6% (2040) and 8% (2060), respectively. These results, in combination with those derived from the Markov model, provide the necessary evidence base to support land use planning and the future-proofing of sustainable water resources management strategies in the basin.