Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in the extratropical regions with high rainfall intensity

Abstract Model projections of regional changes in heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model response in heavy rainfall to rising temperatures. We use spatial aggregation to reduce the major role of internal variability and evaluate the heavy rainfall response to warming temperatures with observations. We show that in the regions with high rainfall intensity and for which gridded observations exist, most of the models underestimate the historical scaling of heavy rainfall and the land fraction with significant positive heavy rainfall scalings during the historical period. The historical behavior is correlated with the projected heavy rainfall intensification across models allowing to apply an observational constraint, i.e., to calibrate multimodel ensembles with observations in order to narrow the range of projections. The constraint suggests a substantially stronger intensification of future heavy rainfall than the multimodel mean.