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China is the most populous country in the world, with a population in 1999 of nearly 1.27 billion. Of even greater interest, China's elderly population (persons age 60 and older) is about 22% (or more than 128 million) of all the elderly living in the world. By 2050, China is projected to have only 14% of the world's people but will have 21% of the world's elderly. This will occur because of the rapidity with which China's age structure will shift toward the older years. In this article, the authors consider the major factor responsible for China's very large current and projected numbers of elderly, namely, the dramatic fertility transition experienced since the 1970s. The authors also discuss the very heavy dependency burden on China's producing population and show that the burden will get even heavier in the decades ahead.
Poston et al. (Fri,) studied this question.