The Prediction of Mortality in Elderly Institution Residents

The relationship between activity and mortality has been examined mainly in middle-aged and elderly community residents. This study investigated the prediction of five-year mortality in 156 institution residents, including a subsample (n = 121) retested one year after the initial assessment. The measures included demographic variables, three health indexes, happiness, quality of life ratings, personality and life stress indexes, cognitive function, and activity level. The strongest predictors of survival beyond five years from initial testing were a younger age and a high activity level. The relationships of age and activity to survival were mutually independent and were not secondary to the effects of any other variable. Health was not related to activity level and did not emerge as a strong predictor of survival. After a consideration of methodological issues, the findings were interpreted as providing support for an activity theory formulation of mortality prediction.