Building an international regime complex for the Arctic: current status and next steps

Abstract The transformative biophysical and socio-economic changes now occurring in the Arctic are generating new needs for governance in the circumpolar north. One common response to this challenge, the negotiation of a comprehensive Arctic treaty, is neither feasible nor necessary as a means of meeting these needs. This analysis turns instead to the idea of a regime complex, a concept that has become increasingly influential in the broader literature on international cooperation, and explores the prospects for the development of an Arctic regime complex. It argues that a number of the elements of such a complex are already in place and that others are coming into focus at this time. There is no basis for complacency here. But, current developments do provide a basis for cautious optimism regarding efforts to meet the needs for governance in the "new" Arctic. Keywords: Arcticfragmentationgovernanceintegrationregime complex Notes This article is based on a lecture delivered at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Helsinki, Finland, 19 June 2012. 1Astil, "Vanishing North". 2Borgerson, "Arctic Meltdown"; Howard, Arctic Gold Rush. 3Wezeman, Military Capabilities. 4AMSA, A Report to the Arctic Council; Emmerson with Lahn, Arctic Opening. 5 The Economist, "Arctic Politics"; International Journal, "The Arctic is Hot". 6Airoldi, European Union and the Arctic; Koivurova and Molenaar, International Governance. 7Berkman et al., Science Diplomacy. 8Koivurova and Molenaar, International Governance. 9Young, "If an Arctic Treaty". 10Huebert et al., Climate Change. 11Koivurova and Molenaar, International Governance. 12Ilulissat Declaration, Arctic Ocean Conference. 13Koivurova and VanderZwaag, "The Arctic Council"; Kankaanpää and Young, "Effectiveness". 14Stokke, "Environmental Security". 15Raustiala and Victor, "Regime Complex"; Keohane and Victor, "Regime Complex"; Orsini, Morin and Young, "Regime Complexes". 16Berkman et al., Science Diplomacy. 17Environmental Protocol, Protocol on Environmental Protection. 18Young, Institutional Dynamics. 19Byers, Who Owns the Arctic? 20Brigham, "Challenges and Security". 21Jensen, IMO Guidelines for Ships. 22Ljunggren, "Arctic Generals Agree". 23Gautier et al., "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil". 24International Organization for Standardization (ISO), ISO 19906. 25The Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) has also proposed a system of voluntary regulations covering ship-based tourism in the Arctic. 26As knowledgeable observers have noted, we should expect changes in complex ecosystems with uncertain results rather than shifts in individual species without systemic consequences. 27Fikkan, Osherenko and Arikainen, "Polar Bears"; Larsen and Stirling, Agreement on the Conservation. 28Downie and Fenge, Northern Lights. 29It is worth noting as well that certain regional arrangements dealing with issues of environmental protection, such as the 1992 Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-east Atlantic (the OSPAR Convention), have catchment areas that cover parts of the Arctic. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Mercury. 30Åhren, Scheinin and Henriksen, "Nordic Sami Convention". 31Pit, Bowden and Rachold, IASC 2012 Bulletin. 32Another international non-governmental organization active in this realm is the International Arctic Social Science Association. 33Young, "A Peaceful Arctic". 34Huebert et al., Climate Change. 35Axworthy and French, "Proposal". 36Berkman and Vylegzhanin, Environmental Security. 37Ottawa Declaration, Establishment of the Arctic Council. 38Kankaanpää and Young, "Effectiveness". 39Ibid.; Young, "Whither the Arctic?"; Koivurova, "Limits and Possibilities"; Fenge, "Canada and the Arctic". 40Griffiths, "Proposal for a Trilateral Agreement". 41Young, "Future of the Arctic". 42Axworthy, Koivurova and Hasanat, Arctic Council; Fenge, "Canada and the Arctic". 43Berkman and Young, "Governance and Environmental Change". 44Axworthy, Koivurova and Hasanat, Arctic Council; Kankaanpää and Young, "Effectiveness". 45Chapin, Kofinas and Folke, Principles of Ecosystem; Griffiths, "Stewardship"; Young, "Arctic Stewardship". 46Young, "Arctic Futures". 47Young, "Listening".