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After characterizing every year in the 120-yr interval 1871–1990 as having an El Niño (EN) or Southern Oscillation minimum (SO), or equatorial sea surface temperature maximum (warm events W) or minimum (cold events C), or any combination of these, or none (nonevents), the rainfalls in various regions of the globe were examined for each category of year, using the data of Ropelewski and Halpert, who had identified some regions as having a negative response (deficit rains) and some as having a positive response (excess rains) to ENSO events. The author finds that this response is best with ENSOW-type events, especially the unambiguous ones (El Niño in the early part of the year and SO and W in the middle of the year), though, in some cases, even ambiguous ENSOW gave good results. Also, the response is reverse for C-type events. Out of the 46 years having El Niño (all types), and 36 years having cold (C) events, the response for some regions is good. But for some other regions, only about half could be associated with the expected response, making predictions uncertain in those regions. Factors other than ENSO may have considerable influence on rainfalls in different regions at different times, thus distorting the ENSO effects.
R. P. Kane (Fri,) studied this question.