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Present research on foreign policy change (FPC) focuses on systemic-structural variables and domestic politics as key causal factors motivating states to change their foreign policy behaviour. Recent works also look towards decision context and bureaucratic politics to explain FPC.1 In this article, I concur with Walter Carlsnaes2 in arguing that attention should focus more on exploring the role of human agents, i.e. leaders that make actual foreign policy decisions, when explaining and predicting FPC. Specifically, I use the leadership traits analysis (LTA) framework to argue that a leader’s level of conceptual complexity interacts with external stimuli (system- and/or domestic-level factors) to affect: (i) the leader’s willingness to change course in response to policy failure and (ii) the type of changes that the leader is likely to carry out. Based on this argument, I propose hypotheses formalizing the effect of a leader’s conceptual complexity on various aspects of FPC. I then present two case studies—one case from Bill Clinton’s administration, the other from the George W. Bush administration—to illustrate how the differences in conceptual complexity between two recent American presidents, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, can help explain their respective approaches to adjusting policies vis-à-vis China. In conclusion, I discuss the implications of this study and directions for future research.
Yi Yang (Fri,) studied this question.