Can the Trading System Survive US–China Trade Friction?

Abstract Donald Trump has sought to change US trading relationships by raising protection at home and taxing the offshore activities of US companies abroad. These measures, which both use and violate trade rules, have provoked retaliation from other countries. Such friction has restricted and distorted trade and investment, undermined the rules‐based trading system and perhaps permanently damaged global value chains that depend on stable rules for market access. Trump has justified some of his measures as a response to China's alleged unfair practices and indeed, China has adopted industrial and technology policies that are formally neutral between domestic and foreign firms but in practice have led foreign firms to complain about discriminatory practices that favor Chinese firms. The US friction with China is unfortunate because instead of trying to bully China into submission in a tariff war, the US could have dealt with many of its concerns more effectively by cooperating with other countries and taking actions that are consistent with maintaining the rules‐based system. While the US has undermined its leadership role, the overall damage to the trading system could still be limited if other countries, especially China, take actions that sustain and strengthen it.