Incidence, predictors and mortality risk of new heart failure in patients hospitalised with atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence, risk predictors and relative mortality risk of incident heart failure (HF) in patients following atrial fibrillation (AF) hospitalisation. METHODS: The Western Australian Hospitalisation Morbidity Data Collection was used to identify patients aged 25-94 years with index (first-in-period) AF hospitalisation, but without a prior HF admission, between 2000 and 2013. We evaluated the risk of incident HF hospitalisation within 3 years after AF admission, and the impact of HF hospitalisation on all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 52 447 patients, 57.5% men, with a median age of 73.1 (IQR 63.2-80.8) years. At 3 years after AF discharge, the cumulative incidence of HF (n=6153) was 11.7% (95% CI 11.5% to 12.0%) and all-cause death (n=9702) was 18.5% (95% CI 18.2% to 18.8%). Independent predictors of incident HF included advancing age, any history of myocardial infarction (MI), peripheral vascular disease, valvular heart disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, diabetes, obesity and excessive alcohol use (all p<0.001). Patients hospitalised for first-ever HF compared with those without HF hospitalisation had an adjusted HR of 3.3 (95% CI 3.1 to 3.4) for all-cause mortality (p<0.001). Independent predictors of HF were also shared with those for mortality, with the exception of hypertension. CONCLUSION: Hospitalisation for new HF is common in patients with AF and independently associated with a 3-fold hazard for death. The clinical predictors of incident HF emphasise the importance of integrated management of common comorbid conditions and lifestyle risk factors in patients with AF to reduce their morbidity and mortality.