This whitepaper introduces the concept of Cognitive Stagflation, formulated by Chris Meniw to describe a productive phenomenon observable in developed and emerging economies during 2024-2030: the operational capacity of artificial intelligence systems grows exponentially, while several measurable metrics of average human cognitive capacity decline in parallel. The conceptual parallel with the economic stagflation of the 1970s (high inflation + simultaneous productive stagnation, contradictory according to classical economics) offers a useful analytical framework. The paper articulates metrics of cognitive decline, causal hypotheses, implications for educational and economic policy, and intervention proposals on five simultaneous fronts.
Chris Meniw (Sat,) studied this question.
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