Reliability-Based Processing of Markov Chains for Modeling Pavement Network Deterioration

Accurate prediction of pavement deterioration is the most important factor in the determination of pavement repair years and optimization programming of highway network maintenance. The Nonhomogeneous Markov Probabilistic Modeling Program, developed to determine pavement deterioration rates in different stages, is described. In this program the transition probability matrices (TPMs) are considered as a time-related transition process. Each element of the TPMs is determined on the basis of a reliability analysis and a Monte Carlo simulation technique. This avoids the use of the existing conventional methods, which involve taking an average subjective opinion of pavement engineers or observing a large number of multiyear pavement performance data and conducting a number of statistical calculations. As a result a series of TPMs for an individual pavement section for different stages can be determined by running the program. Furthermore, the pavement condition state in terms of a probability vector at each stage (year) is calculated. In applying the models both the predicted actual traffic (in terms of equivalent single axle loads) at each stage and the maximum traffic that the pavement can withstand at each defined pavement condition state interval are considered to be random variables. In addition, the sensitivities of pavement deterioration rates to pavement design parameters, such as traffic growth rate, subgrade strength, and material properties, are studied. Finally, an example of calculating the TPMs for a pavement section located in southeastern Ontario, Canada, is demonstrated. It shows that the sensitivities of the TPMs to traffic growth rate, subgrade deflection, and pavement thickness are significant.