WHO Adds More "1918" to Pandemic Predictions

Call it a crash course in the vagaries of risk communication. Until now, the World Health Organization (WHO) has been deliberately cautious in estimating how many people a new influenza pandemic might kill. Dire projections, WHO officials have worried, could damage its credibility. But last week, the agency bowed to experts—including one from its own ranks—who have been ratcheting up the projected death toll in recent months. WHO conceded in a statement that scientifically valid assumptions range as high as 50 million or more—at least seven times WHO's previous maximum number.