Sprawl, Spatial Location, and Politics

This study explores how spatial characteristics commonly associated with suburban sprawl (including density, reliance on the automobile, neighborhood age, and commuting patterns) help predict voting patterns and individual ideological orientation. I find that, at the county level, greater reliance on automobile commuting and younger housing stock were strong predictors of greater support for the Republican candidate in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, controlling for demographic factors. Using the 2000 Social Capital Community Benchmark Survey (SCCBS), I also find that greater automobile reliance and younger housing stock, measured at the census tract level, are strong predictors of more conservative ideological orientation among individuals, controlling for other individual and contextual factors. I go on to explore three possible mechanisms driving the relationship between sprawling spatial environments and conservative political outlooks: self-selection, shifting self-interest based on spatial location within the metropolitan area, and shifting social perceptions resulting from the character of the built environment.